Thursday, February 19, 2009

Could China end the Global Recession?

You heard right, China the once poverty stricken, third-world nation could be the one to end the Global Recession.  This could come as a shock to many who assumed that the United States would be the rightful one to complete the job.  My belief in China comes after the announcement that the Chinese Government Reserves have over $2 trillion in which they are willing to invest into the Global Economy, especially among Natural Resources and Commodities.  Who would have thought money like this existed after the constant chatter we here in back home about debt, bankruptcies, and company failures.  China has accumulated this money slowly over time and most is invested in safe positions such as the U.S. Treasury. As of what to do with the money, China recently loaned $25 billion to Russia in exchange for Crude Oil.  They have been in heated talks with Petrobrasilero (PBR) about venturing into deep sea discovery, Rio Tinto (RTP) and Vale (RIO) about the purchase of billions of dollars worth of Iron & Ore.  Such investments would benefit everyone down the line from the commodity producer to the shipper who transports the items to the consumer who receives the cheap good.  If we are ever going to return to normal economic levels we need to return to normal levels of production.  Shutting down plants, stopping production helps no one in the long-term. A strategic move by China would be also to help stabilize the Global banking system as whenever the Banks can get back on track and begin lending money is when we will see true economic growth.  This is a win, win for China.  Gaining such assets will allow them to continue its massive infrastructure projects with the goal of becoming the Global power.  Also investing large amounts of capital will not only make many countries fell obliged to owe China one, but if the Economy returns to normal levels China will be able to out produce everyone from services to manufacturing with the new levels of of infrastructure they are building.  We are a long ways a way but this would be the next step forward to a true Global Economy vs the American driven Economy, if we were to see a Third-World country lead us out of this mess.



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