Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Why Markets are focused on Banks?

With the annocucement of President Obama's second stimulus plan of $825 billion it looks like Wall Street has chosen the higly volatile banking industry as its ticket to ride out the recession. While the government prepares key meaures to rescue the Financial sector, banks stocks have unified and soared even when the news seems bad and the outlook is worse.  Today's news that President Obama would swallow most of the Bad Bank Assets with a $825 billion stimulus plan was the trigger which sent the Financials soaring again.  Gains came all over, Wells Fargo (WFC) posted a quarterly loss along with little other news that seemed to justify a resurgence in the sector however the stocked skyrocketed 32%. It seems like anything that isn't horrific news or results in job cuts is a reason to get excited about banks.  Investors seem desperate for that kind of excitement and it has caused a level of positivity that banks can go back to doing what banks do.  Still though the outlook on Banks is they have more room to fall.  Personally, i do not see this rally sustainable.  While the notion is great that the government is willing to purchase the bank's toxic assets the numbers don't match up as such a buyout would swell past $1 trillion. In addition, we still have to see the details of the government buy out and what they are willing to pay for bad assets and what effect the buyout will have on the sector, which will still see a number of institutions fail.  The government has to decide which banks they will work with since there is limited money to go around.  Overall this enthusiasm in trading is tied to the stimulus plan and will result in a short-term burst for the market.  In the next following months expect Banks to drop some up to 20%.  After that it is a perfect buying opportunity. Pick-up as many once great stocks for Under $10 as you can afford. Also look for banks such as (WFC), commodities (RIO), infrastructure (FLR), transportation (TBSI), and oil/gas (APC) to all pickup and report good gains at ladder part of 2009. 

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